Asia's imports of seaborne thermal coal surged to the
highest on record in May as cheaper prices tempted buyers in the region's
developing economies.
A total of 78.38 million tonnes of the fuel used primarily
to generate electricity is likely to be offloaded across Asia in May, according
to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.
This is the most in Kpler data going back to January 2017,
while Refinitiv data also shows record imports in May in data stretching back
to January 2015.
The robust May outcome comes on the back of strength in both
March and April, with those two months being the second- and third-strongest
months according to Kpler data.
Rising thermal coal imports come as seaborne prices for the
fuel continue to decline, with two of the more popular grades slipping to
16-month lows in the week to May 26.
Australian coal at Newcastle Port with an energy value of
5,500 kilocalories per kg (kcal/kg) , as assessed by price reporting agency
Argus, ended last week at USD 96.54 a tonne, the first time since December 2021
that it has dropped below the USD 100 level.
Indonesian coal with an energy value of 4,200 kcal/kg
slipped to USD 65.28 a tonne, the lowest since January 2022 and just over half of
the peak of USD 120.86 reached in March last year in the wake of Russia's invasion
of Ukraine.
Both these grades are popular in China and India, the
world's two biggest coal importers, as well as in other developing Asian
economies such as Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia.
China's imports of thermal coal remained at elevated levels
in May, with Kpler estimating arrivals of 28.24 million tonnes, slightly below
April's 28.42 million and March's 28.40 million.
It's worth noting that the past three months have been the
strongest in Kpler's data going back to January 2017, with May's imports being
137% higher than the same month in 2022.
China has turned to seaborne thermal coal to meet rising
electricity demand, with thermal power plants generating 83 billion kilowatt
hours (kWh) more in the first four months of the year, compared with the same
period in 2022.
Coal-fired generation increased as hydropower struggled,
with output from the clean power source dropping by 42 billion kWh in the
January to April period.
Imports of thermal coal by China, Japan, India
INDIA SURGE
India, the world's second-biggest coal importer, has also
ramped up purchases, with May arrivals of thermal grades estimated by Kpler at
16.62 million tonnes, up from April's 14.37 million and the most since July
last year.
Hotter than usual weather and solid economic growth are
driving India's imports, with lower prices meaning coal-fired power plants that
run on imported fuel can make profits even when selling into India's
price-regulated electricity markets.
Other buyers in developing Asian markets are also seeing
rising thermal coal imports, with Vietnam expected to land 2.90 million tonnes
in May, up from 2.09 million in April and the most since June 2020.
Malaysia's imports are expected to be 3.26 million tonnes in
May, up from 2.64 million in April and the most since March 2020.
While lower prices and rising electricity demand are driving
thermal coal imports in developing Asia, the advanced economies in north Asia
are experiencing their usual seasonal lull between winter and summer peaks.
Japan, Asia's third-biggest coal buyer, is estimated by
Kpler to have imported 6.95 million tonnes of thermal grades in May, down from
April's 8.55 million and 10.60 million in March.
Fourth-ranked South Korea will import 6.03 million tonnes in
May, down from 6.70 million in April and 6.42 million in March.
These two countries tend to favour high-grade Australian
coal, the price of which has also been sliding.
The weekly Newcastle Index for 6,000 kcal/kg coal dropped to
a 22-month low of USD 146.78 a tonne in the week to May 26, and is now down 67%
from its record high of USD 442.89, reached in September last year.
The bigger fall in the price of higher quality Australian thermal coal when compared to lesser grades is likely a reflection of the stronger demand for lower-quality fuel in price-sensitive buyers in Asia.
Image source: REUTERS/Daniel Munoz
Source: www.reuters.com/Asia's seaborne thermal coal imports hit record high as prices slip
