PT Timah Tbk. (TINS) is targeting a net profit of between IDR 1 trillion and IDR 1.5 trillion this year. This bottom-line projection is supported by a revenue target of IDR 12 trillion to IDR 13 trillion for 2025.
TINS Corporate Secretary, Rendi Kurniawan, said that this year’s target is driven by an increase in tin resources and reserves, as well as the opening of new mines.
"Performance improvements and the restructuring of the company’s subsidiaries and efficiencies across all business lines," said Rendi when contacted on Saturday (8/2/2025).
Rendi explained that there will be an increase in the production capacity of tin ore and tin metal sales by about 10% to 20% this year, compared to the performance realization in 2024.
On the other hand, he confirmed that the demand for tin metal this year is relatively strengthening. Citing data from the London Metal Exchange (LME) as of February 7, 2025, the price of tin for the three-month contract closed at USD 31.309 per ton. Meanwhile, by July 2025, the price of tin closed at USD 31,201 per ton.
"The tin market is currently in a positive outlook," he said.
Previously, TINS confirmed that it would distribute dividends for the 2024 fiscal year. This decision was made after the company successfully recorded a significant net profit of IDR 908.78 billion from January to September 2024.
Furthermore, TINS management estimates that the dividend payout ratio (DPR) for the 2024 fiscal year will be in the range of 30% to 35%.
With this consideration, Sucor Sekuritas has a positive outlook on the movement of TINS's stock and performance this year. Sucor recommends a buy with a target price of IDR 1,740 per share, assuming a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 13.6%.
"We view the tin industry optimistically, driven by its strategic role in supporting the computing, robotics, electric vehicle, and renewable energy sectors," wrote Sucor Sekuritas Analyst Jeremy Hansen N.H in his research, quoted on Saturday (8/2/2025).
Sucor Sekuritas predicts that the demand for tin will double from its current levels, reaching nearly 800,000 tons by 2040. However, supply is expected to be limited, with an annual deficit of about 2.5% due to the scarcity of new mining projects globally.
"Moreover, with production limited in Indonesia, this will keep the average tin selling price around USD 28.000 to USD 35.000 per ton, which will benefit producers like TINS,"wrote Jeremy.
On the other hand, Sucor projects that TINS will be able to post a net profit of IDR 1.14 trillion, generating a 16% return on equity. Jeremy explained that the key driver of TINS's return on equity comes from higher net margins with cash costs around USD 18,000, 18% lower on an annual basis.
"We forecast net profits for 2025 will range from Rp1.37 trillion to Rp1.43 trillion, driven by production growth, clearer regulations, and average selling price (ASP) increases," he said.
