Coal prices crept up again on Tuesday (26/3). The price increase is the result of increased demand as well as imports from China.

Quoting Trading Economics, coal prices crawled up 2.06% to USD 136.50 per ton on Tuesday (16/4) at 16:30 WIB. In a week, coal prices have climbed 6.47%.

Commodity observer and Founder of Traderindo.com, Wahyu Tribowo Laksono said, the increase in coal prices is still quite reasonable. The trigger is the increasing demand from coal-fired power plants in China and the surge in demand from India.

Wahyu said that China's imports of all types of coal from the cross-sea market reached 97.43 million metric tons in the first quarter of 2024, up 16.9% from 83.36 million tons in the same period in 2023.

China began implementing a surge in coal-fired power plant licenses in line with a wave of electricity shortages in 2021.

Wahyu also estimates that coal prices will trade in the range of USD 100-USD 150 per ton at the end of the first quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, in the second quarter of 2024, coal prices will move at USD 80-USD 200 per ton.

Meanwhile, Commodity and Currency Analyst Lukman Leong said, the increase in coal prices was also supported by high crude oil prices and concerns about the escalation of wars in the Middle East.

If the war intensifies, the price of crude oil could reach USD 100 per barrel. "This will help hoist coal prices to the level of USD 150-USD 160 per ton," Lukman told KONTAN on Tuesday (16/4).

However, Lukman said, if the war or geopolitical conditions are not intensive, then the strong US dollar, resulting from the reduced prospect of interest rate cuts by the Fed, will again pressure coal prices to the level of USD 120 per ton.

With that assumption, coal prices at the end of 2024 could be at the level of USD 130-USD 140 per ton.

Image source: ANTARA / Syifa Yulinnas
Source: https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/laju-harga-batubara-tak-terbendung-di-tengah-menguatnya-permintaan