INCO's Nickel Production Target Expected to Boost Performance in Second Half of 2025
Mon 06 Oct 2025, 07:07 AM
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PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO), part of Indonesia’s state mining holding MIND ID, posted solid operational fundamentals in the first half of 2025.
Nickel output rose consistently, with Q2 2025 production up 12% from the previous quarter. Cumulatively, first-half production was 2% higher than the same period in 2024.
This increase was driven by proactive maintenance and other operational enhancements. These measures ensured INCO could maintain production continuity and the quality of the nickel matte produced.
2025 Nickel Production Target
Vale Indonesia targets total 2025 production of around 71,234 metric tons (t) of nickel in matte. This is higher than last year’s level and reflects management’s confidence in capturing global demand.
In Q2 2025, nickel matte shipments rose to 18,023 tons, up from 17,096 tons in Q1 2025. The volume uptick shows the company’s ability to meet market needs and maximize available production capacity.
The average realized price of nickel matte in Q2 2025 was USD 12,091 per ton, slightly higher than USD 11,932 per ton in the prior quarter.
The price increase, combined with higher shipment volumes, had a positive impact on revenue, which reached USD 220.2 million, up 7% from USD 206.5 million in the previous quarter.
Financial Performance and Net Profit
INCO maintained EBITDA of USD 40 million and booked a positive net profit of USD 3.5 million for Q2 2025. This performance reflects operational efficiency amid global market dynamics and nickel price fluctuations.
Optimism is also building heading into H2 2025. The company aims to optimize production to capitalize on market momentum, supported by still-competitive nickel prices.
Market Sentiment and Stock Recommendation
BRI Danareksa Sekuritas analysts Erindra Krisnawan and Wilastita Muthia Sofi note that although domestic equities were pressured by foreign outflows, relatively inexpensive index valuations provide a positive cushion for INCO shares.
BRI Danareksa rates INCO a Buy with a target price of IDR 4,700 per share, about 19.29% upside from the current IDR 3,940. INCO’s market cap stands at IDR 41.53 trillion, up 8.84% year-to-date and 11.93% in the past three months.
Strategic Project Support
One of INCO’s key catalysts is the collaboration between Danantara Indonesia and China-listed GEM Limited. The agreement centers on building a High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) smelting facility with capacity of 66,000 tons of nickel per year in mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP).
The project, worth USD 1.42 billion, will involve INCO alongside other global partners. This strategic project is expected to lift medium- to long-term production growth and strengthen INCO’s position in the global nickel supply chain.
Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) Support
Beyond HPAL, positive sentiment also comes from approval of INCO’s Work Plan and Budget (RKAB). The approval allows the company to sell 2.2 million tons of saprolite ore from the Bahodopi mine in Central Sulawesi starting July 2025.
Saprolite ore sales are expected to provide an additional boost to INCO’s H2 2025 financial performance. This underpins potential profit improvement in the second half, supported by firm global demand.
Industry Outlook and Nickel Prices
The moderate increase in nickel matte prices contributed to higher INCO revenue and profit. In Q2 2025, the realized price of USD 12,091 per ton reflects a stable trend supportive of financial performance.
Nickel mining is expected to remain a leading sector, with nickel serving as a hedge against market volatility. With domestic catalysts and strategic projects, INCO has a strong footing to navigate global fluctuations.
Maintenance Strategy and Production Optimization
INCO’s success in sustaining operational performance is also supported by maintenance strategies and production optimization. The company continues to improve efficiency, conduct routine plant maintenance, and manage a resilient supply chain.
This strategy ensures continuity of nickel matte deliveries, fulfillment of production targets, and sustainable revenue growth.
H2 2025 Plans and Outlook
The second half of 2025 is expected to be pivotal for INCO. With the HPAL project, RKAB approval, and stable nickel price trends, the company could post stronger profit growth than in the first half.
Analysts view INCO as strategically positioned to capture global market opportunities while strengthening long-term financial fundamentals. H2 performance will be a key indicator for investors assessing INCO’s prospects.
INCO’s operational and financial results in H1 2025 show a positive trend, supported by maintenance strategy, higher production volumes, and strategic projects.
A higher nickel production target, together with relatively stable nickel prices, forms a key catalyst for profit growth.
With support from the HPAL project, RKAB, and solid global demand prospects, INCO is expected to strengthen in H2 2025.
Investors are advised to watch this momentum as an opportunity to consider INCO shares as a leading asset in the nickel mining sector.
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