UNTR’s Doup Project to Boost Gold Production Beyond 400koz by FY28F; Overall Transaction Outlook Positive

UNTR, through its subsidiary Danusa Tambang Nusantara (DTN), has signed a conditional sale and purchase agreement (SPA) with J Resources Nusantara (PSAB) to acquire 100% of Arafura Surya Alam (ASA) for USD 540 million. The transaction is expected to be fully funded with internal cash and completed by Dec-25, so the risk of a lower FY25F dividend payout ratio (DPR) is limited, given a cash balance of IDR 15 trillion.

ASA holds an IUPOP mining permit for the Doup Project—an open-pit gold concession covering 4,000 ha in North Sulawesi with estimated resources/reserves of 3.1/1.6 Moz (ore grade 1.28 g/t). The acquisition implies an EV/resource valuation of USD 174/oz versus the prior-deal average of USD 150/oz (Fig. 2).

Doup to lift combined production to >400 koz

The Doup Project is currently under construction and is estimated to require an additional USD 400 million in capex to start production in FY28F. At full capacity, the mine is projected to produce 140–155 koz per year, taking UNTR’s combined gold output to >400 koz in FY28F. The project will use a Carbon-in-Leach (CIL) process with an expected recovery rate of ~90% and AISC guidance of USD 1.5–1.6k/oz (with USD 7 million in sustaining capex). Based on our base-case assumptions (Fig. 3; ASP USD 3,600), the Doup Project is expected to contribute IDR 3.3 trillion to UNTR’s FY28F net profit, while the combined gold business contributes around IDR 10 trillion (~50%) to FY28F net profit, all else equal.

Maintain Hold with a higher SOTP-based TP of IDR 27,000/share

We adjust our FY25F earnings estimate by +5% to reflect divestment gains from BBM and PJU in 2Q25. We also incorporate the Doup Project into our SOTP at acquisition cost for now, pending progress toward production. We view the acquisition positively as it aligns with management’s long-term vision to diversify away from coal, while the renewed focus on TSR also appears to be taking shape.

Execution risk is seen as limited given UNTR’s track record operating Martabe. Accordingly, we raise our TP to IDR 27,000 (from IDR 24,000) but maintain Hold, as the Doup acquisition and TSR focus seem largely priced in after the recent share-price rally (+27% from the Jun-25 lows). Key risks include soft coal prices, which could compress TTA margins and lower Pama volumes.

Source: https://www.indopremier.com/ipotnews/newsDetail.php?jdl=UNTR___Proyek_Doup_dorong_produksi_emas_%3E400koz_pada_FY28F__transaksi_secara_keseluruhan_positif&news_id=204885&group_news=IPOTNEWS&taging_subtype=PSAB&name=&search=y_general&q=(PSAB),&halaman=1

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